The 2025-2026 winter was an historically low snow season for Colorado. The snowpack trended well below normal from December through April due to inconsistent storms and very warm temperatures.

As we look ahead to the 2026-2027 winter season, it's important to remember that any winter outlook will contain an inherent degree of uncertainty. However, there are a few clues that we can keep an eye on thanks to everyone's favorite weather phenomenon: El Niño.

For the upcoming winter season, an El Niño looks to be in store, and better yet, current sea surface temperatures are showing a strengthening El Niño event.

El Niño, Explained

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

El Niño represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle and means that the ocean water temperatures are warmer than average.

Ski Season Snowpack vs. El Niño

The map below shows Colorado snowpack during the ten El Niño winters since 1982, one panel per winter. Each dot is one SNOTEL station's peak snow water equivalent measured against that station's own 1991-2020 median.

Blue dots finished above normal, white dots near normal, orange dots below.

Here is how it looks with every El Niño winter compressed together, one dot per station:

As you can see, the relationship tends to be a mixed bag for El Niño and snowpack in Colorado, with most of the state close to average during the winter months.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Steamboat Ski Resort

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 42.0 inches at the Tower SNOTEL station, I’ve found that the median SWE near Steamboat during those El Niño years is 41.7 inches on March 31, or 99% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 42.0" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 44.5" (106%)
• 1986-1987: 34.8" (83%)
• 1991-1992: 39.6" (94%)
• 1994-1995: 45.6" (109%)
• 1997-1998: 44.0" (105%)
• 2002-2003: 43.0" (102%)
• 2009-2010: 32.8" (78%)
• 2015-2016: 38.5" (92%)
• 2018-2019: 50.1" (119%)
• 2023-2024: 40.3" (96%)

One of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better near Steamboat on March 31, and two finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 3.5" (130%)
• November: 7.2" (113%)
• December: 6.5" (96%)
• January: 7.8" (85%)
• February: 7.9" (100%)
• March: 8.7" (132%)
• April: 6.9" (121%)

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Winter Park Ski Resort

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 18.2 inches at the Berthoud Summit SNOTEL station, I’ve found that the median SWE near Winter Park during those El Niño years is 20.6 inches on March 31, or 113% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 18.2" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 21.5" (118%)
• 1986-1987: 16.3" (90%)
• 1991-1992: 21.1" (116%)
• 1994-1995: 14.8" (81%)
• 1997-1998: 18.4" (101%)
• 2002-2003: 20.5" (113%)
• 2009-2010: 17.6" (97%)
• 2015-2016: 20.8" (114%)
• 2018-2019: 20.6" (113%)
• 2023-2024: 21.7" (119%)

Six of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better near Winter Park on March 31, and one finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 1.4" (200%)
• November: 2.8" (112%)
• December: 2.3" (70%)
• January: 3.1" (89%)
• February: 3.3" (100%)
• March: 5.8" (149%)
• April: 3.1" (124%)

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Copper Ski Resort

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 14.3 inches at the Copper Mountain SNOTEL station, I’ve found that the median SWE at Copper during those El Niño years is 14.4 inches on March 31, or 101% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 14.3" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 14.5" (101%)
• 1986-1987: 10.9" (76%)
• 1991-1992: 13.0" (91%)
• 1994-1995: 14.6" (102%)
• 1997-1998: 13.7" (96%)
• 2002-2003: 16.5" (115%)
• 2009-2010: 11.2" (78%)
• 2015-2016: 14.8" (103%)
• 2018-2019: 18.9" (132%)
• 2023-2024: 14.2" (99%)

Two of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better at Copper on March 31, and two finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 1.2" (200%)
• November: 3.0" (111%)
• December: 1.8" (78%)
• January: 2.3" (88%)
• February: 2.5" (96%)
• March: 3.5" (121%)
• April: 1.8" (129%)

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Vail Ski Resort

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 18.8 inches at the Vail Mountain SNOTEL station, I’ve found that the median SWE at Vail during those El Niño years is 19.6 inches on March 31, or 104% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 18.8" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 24.6" (131%)
• 1986-1987: 15.9" (85%)
• 1991-1992: 20.9" (111%)
• 1994-1995: 19.1" (102%)
• 1997-1998: 16.2" (86%)
• 2002-2003: 20.6" (110%)
• 2009-2010: 14.6" (78%)
• 2015-2016: 19.4" (103%)
• 2018-2019: 20.4" (109%)
• 2023-2024: 19.8" (105%)

Three of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better at Vail on March 31, and three finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 1.8" (150%)
• November: 3.7" (123%)
• December: 1.9" (70%)
• January: 2.9" (91%)
• February: 3.7" (97%)
• March: 5.5" (134%)
• April: 2.6" (130%)

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Aspen Snowmass

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 15.8 inches at the Independence Pass SNOTEL station, I’ve found that the median SWE at Aspen Snowmass during those El Niño years is 16.0 inches on March 31, or 101% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 15.8" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 16.6" (105%)
• 1986-1987: 15.8" (100%)
• 1991-1992: 14.0" (89%)
• 1994-1995: 18.7" (118%)
• 1997-1998: 14.9" (94%)
• 2002-2003: 16.2" (103%)
• 2009-2010: 15.8" (100%)
• 2015-2016: 15.0" (95%)
• 2018-2019: 20.7" (131%)
• 2023-2024: 16.6" (105%)

Two of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better at Aspen Snowmass on March 31, and one finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 1.4" (127%)
• November: 3.7" (119%)
• December: 2.0" (77%)
• January: 2.6" (90%)
• February: 3.3" (114%)
• March: 3.6" (124%)
• April: -0.5" (100%)

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Crested Butte Ski Resort

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 13.0 inches at the Butte SNOTEL station, I’ve found that the median SWE at Crested Butte during those El Niño years is 14.0 inches on March 31, or 108% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 13.0" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 14.5" (112%)
• 1986-1987: 15.4" (118%)
• 1991-1992: 11.7" (90%)
• 1994-1995: 20.6" (158%)
• 1997-1998: 12.2" (94%)
• 2002-2003: 13.4" (103%)
• 2009-2010: 12.0" (92%)
• 2015-2016: 13.1" (101%)
• 2018-2019: 19.1" (147%)
• 2023-2024: 16.0" (123%)

Five of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better at Crested Butte on March 31, and zero finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 1.2" (300%)
• November: 3.4" (148%)
• December: 1.5" (63%)
• January: 3.1" (100%)
• February: 3.0" (111%)
• March: 3.0" (120%)
• April: -3.8" (95%)

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Red Mountain Pass

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 22.3 inches at the Red Mountain Pass SNOTEL station, which is situated between Telluride to the west and Silverton to the east, I’ve found that the median SWE on Red Mountain Pass during those El Niño years is 24.3 inches on March 31, or 109% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 22.3" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 29.3" (131%)
• 1986-1987: 31.3" (140%)
• 1991-1992: 25.9" (116%)
• 1994-1995: 28.6" (128%)
• 1997-1998: 21.1" (95%)
• 2002-2003: 17.5" (78%)
• 2009-2010: 22.7" (102%)
• 2015-2016: 20.0" (90%)
• 2018-2019: 33.0" (148%)
• 2023-2024: 20.6" (92%)

Five of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better on Red Mountain Pass on March 31, and one finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 1.8" (150%)
• November: 4.3" (105%)
• December: 2.6" (76%)
• January: 3.9" (105%)
• February: 4.4" (107%)
• March: 7.3" (192%)
• April: 1.3" (130%)

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Wolf Creek Ski Resort

After looking back at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 27.0 inches at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL station, I’ve found that the median SWE near Wolf Creek during those El Niño years is 30.4 inches on March 31, or 113% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 27.0" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 42.0" (156%)
• 1986-1987: 35.9" (133%)
• 1991-1992: 33.3" (123%)
• 1994-1995: 44.2" (164%)
• 1997-1998: 27.5" (102%)
• 2002-2003: 25.9" (96%)
• 2009-2010: 27.2" (101%)
• 2015-2016: 26.7" (99%)
• 2018-2019: 40.5" (150%)
• 2023-2024: 24.8" (92%)

Five of the ten El Niño winters finished at 110% of normal or better near Wolf Creek on March 31, and zero finished below 90%.

For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:

• October: 2.0" (400%)
• November: 5.6" (133%)
• December: 3.1" (74%)
• January: 4.6" (102%)
• February: 7.1" (113%)
• March: 7.9" (208%)
• April: -3.5" (124%)

Overall, the analog winters tell us that Colorado tends to be right around average for snowpack during El Niño winters. Here is the breakdown for each area:

Across all eight SNOTEL stations, the median El Niño winter finishes at 106% of normal on March 31.

The strongest signal across this analysis is the potential for a solid start, a weak middle, and a stronger end to the season. Here's the monthly breakdown for each area:

What is the best analog winter for 2026-2027?

As mentioned in this article, the RONI as of September 8, 2026, is up to 1.4°C, which is the warmest anomaly since 1997 (1.5°C in 1997 vs. 1.4°C in 2026). Of every El Niño on record, 1997-1998 is the one this year most resembles.

Let's have a little fun by looking back at how the snowpack finished during the 1997-1998 winter season across Colorado. The entire state finished 101% compared to normal, with the central and southern mountains finishing near to above normal.

Having said all of this, for skiers and snowboarders, keep in mind that when it comes to finding the best conditions, it’s all about timing. To have the best chance of enjoying the deepest powder, our recommendation is to book a trip 7-10 days in advance.

Sometimes, longer-range forecasts can identify possible storms 1-2 weeks (or longer) in advance, but often, forecast confidence in the details of each storm only begins to increase when the system is about one week away or closer.

If you're ready to level up your weather app for the upcoming winter season, consider upgrading to OpenSnow Premium. Whether you’re chasing powder, searching for sunny days, or something in between, our 15-day snow forecasts, expert "Daily Snow" forecasters, and high-resolution weather maps have you covered.

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Sam Collentine