For the upcoming winter season, an El Niño looks to be in store, and better yet, current sea surface temperatures are showing a very strong El Niño event. This article will explain what exactly El Niño is and what a significant El Niño episode could mean for the 2026-2027 ski season.

What is El Niño?

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

El Niño represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle and means that the ocean water temperatures are warmer than average.

El Niño Criteria

1) The average sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean were at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) warmer than average in the preceding month.

2) The average anomaly of at least +0.5°C (+0.9°F) has persisted or is expected to persist for 5 consecutive, overlapping 3-month periods.

Current El Niño Status

Confidence is growing that an El Niño event will take center stage for the 2026-2027 winter season.

An El Niño emerged during the summer of 2026, and there's a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026‑27.

For October‑December, the Climate Prediction Center puts the odds at 75% that this event exceeds every El Niño since 1950 (a three-month RONI of +2.5°C or warmer). The current record is +2.4°C, set in 1982‑1983.

The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) in the Niño 3.4 region (sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific) reached +1.4°C for the June through August period. That is the second-warmest June‑August in the entire record back to 1950, behind only 1997, one of the largest El Niños ever observed.

How predictable are the impacts of El Niño?

There are two major sources of uncertainty in long-range forecasts predicting weather months in advance. 

The first source of uncertainty is how accurately we can predict El Niño or La Niña. El Niño is expected to continue, and there's a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.

The second source of uncertainty is the atmospheric response to El Niño or La Niña. That is, if El Niño occurs, does it always affect the weather in North America in the same way?

To determine how El Niño impacts weather in North America, we can look at snowfall records during past El Niño events and compare them to a typical year. 

Historical Strong El Niño Episodes

The map below shows the peak western snowpack during the four strongest El Niño episodes on record (the only four that reached a peak RONI of +2.0°C or warmer).

• 1982-1983: 139%
• 1991-1992: 73%
• 1997-1998: 104%
• 2015-2016: 98%

Each dot is one SNOTEL station's peak snow water equivalent measured against that station's own 1991‑2020 median. Blue dots finished above normal, white dots near normal, orange dots below.

The effects of El Niño appear to show a mixed bag for much of the Western United States, with the strongest signal being average to above-average snowfall for the Southwest.

Again, though, the pattern doesn’t hold 100% of the time.

1997-1998 Winter Season

As mentioned above, the RONI as of September 8, 2026, is up to 1.4°C, which is the warmest anomaly since 1997 (1.5°C in 1997 vs. 1.4°C in 2026).

Let's have a little fun by looking back at how the snowpack finished during the 1997-1998 winter season at each ski region across the Western United States.

• California: 156%
• Colorado: 101%
• Utah: 128%
• Southwest: 138%
• Pacific Northwest: 102%
• Northern Rockies: 96%
• All Regions: 104%

Each dot is one SNOTEL station's peak snow water equivalent measured against that station's own 1991‑2020 median. Blue dots finished above normal, white dots near normal, orange dots below.

The 1997-1998 ski season is interesting to look at as a potential comparison for an El Niño episode, but keep in mind that no matter how deep or light a winter is overall, when it comes to skiing, it’s all about timing.

Booking a trip 7-10 days in advance and for a general area that looks stormy will increase your chances of scoring the best conditions.

If you're ready to level up your weather app for the upcoming winter season, consider upgrading to OpenSnow Premium. Whether you’re chasing powder, searching for sunny days, or something in between, our 15-day snow forecasts, expert "Daily Snow" forecasters, and high-resolution weather maps have you covered.

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Sam Collentine