The transition from summer to fall is arguably the most beautiful time of the year in the high country. The high peaks receive their first dusting of snow, and the trees glow with gold, scarlet, and orange leaves. 

The timing of peak color varies by location and elevation across the U.S. Generally speaking, leaves turn earlier across higher elevation areas and more northerly locations, and later across lower elevation areas and more southerly locations.

Weather Factors that Influence the Timing and Intensity of Peak Color

The effects of weather and soil conditions on fall colors can be tricky to nail down, and there are always uncertainties with regard to timing and vibrancy, but there are at least a few factors we can look at.

The following conditions typically result in the most vibrant fall colors:

• Wet (or non-drought) conditions during the spring.
  
  
• Near-normal or slightly above normal mid to late summer rainfall.
  
  
• Warm, sunny days and cool nights during the fall.
  
  
• A lack of "extreme" weather events in the fall (such as heat waves, cold snaps, or heavy precipitation and wind events).
  
  

Factors that Favor Earlier than Average Leaf Change:

• Drought conditions and below-average late summer rainfall.
  
  
• Earlier-than-average spring leaf-out.
  
  
• Below-average early fall temperatures.

Factors that Favor Later than Average Leaf Change:

• Above-average late summer and early fall rainfall.
  
  
• Later-than-average spring leaf-out.
  
  
• Above-average late summer and early fall temperatures. 

Next, let's take a closer look at some of these key factors and how they could impact the fall foliage season...

Early Spring Leaf-Out for Much of the U.S.

Following an abnormally warm winter, the West had its earliest leaf-out on record dating back to 1981, arriving 2-5 weeks early according to a report from the National Phenology Network.

The Appalachians, New York, and New England also had a slightly earlier than average leaf-out despite having a colder winter, and this was likely due to stretches of well-above-average warmth that occurred in March. 

Lower elevation portions of the Southeast, outside of the mountains, experienced a later than normal spring leaf-out, as did northern-most portions of the Midwest. 

All other factors equal, and early leaf-out would also tilt the odds toward an earlier start to fall leaf change, but this also is heavily dependent on drought, precipitation, and temperature patterns in the summer and early fall, as we'll discuss next.

Drought and Precipitation:

As of late August, drought conditions are present across much of the West. Areas with extreme to exceptional drought, such as Colorado and New Mexico, may experience a less vibrant fall foliage season than usual, though there will still be good color to be found.

While moderate drought has crept into portions of Maine, overall, New England, New York, and portions of the Appalachians should experience a vibrant fall foliage season this year as it has been a wetter year overall, and leaf-out occurred only slightly earlier than normal in the spring. 

There have been areas of above-normal mid to late summer rainfall (past 60 days) for parts of the Southwest and western portions of the Rockies into the Great Basin, as well as over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

However, there have not been any excessively wet areas (abnormally high rainfall can negatively influence fall colors, while slight to moderate above normal rain is better).

Mid to late summer rain has been below-normal over the Pacific Northwest, Colorado, New Mexico, Southern Plains, and Northern New England. 

Areas that are experiencing drought and have had below average late summer rain, such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Oregon, will likely see an earlier-than-normal leaf change this year since the leaves are already stressed from the lack of moisture, and they also leafed out much earlier than normal in the spring.

Utah, Western Wyoming, Eastern Idaho, and Western Montana have seen above-average mid to late summer rain, so this may help to push the leaf change to a more normal, or perhaps just slightly earlier than normal timing. 

Also, the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California/Nevada have seen pockets of above-average rain late this summer and are also not in a drought like most of the West, so this area could potentially see a more vibrant fall foliage season. 

Larch season in the PNW and NW Montana could also be good this year where drought conditions are more isolated and less severe, and where an uptick in moisture is also expected in early September. 

Temperature:

August has been a hotter-than-average month across much of the Western, Central, and Southern U.S. Areas of the North Central U.S. have seen temperatures closer to average.

Early September is likely to feature a stretch of cooler temperatures across most of the West other than Colorado and New Mexico. Further east, well above average warmth is expected for much of the Central and Eastern U.S. from September 1-10, with New England being the lone exception where temperatures should be closer to average. 

For mid to late September, NOAA's 3-4 week outlook favors equal chances for above or below normal temperatures for much of the country, while hanging onto an above-average temperature signal across the Southeast and Southern Appalachians. Above-average warmth is also favored in California. 

Consistent above-average summer and early fall warmth can often act to delay fall foliage onset. However, this may not be as much of a factor in areas that are already under excessive drought, in which case the drought-stressed leaves may still turn and drop earlier than normal, which is expected in the Southern Rockies in particular (Colorado and New Mexico).

In the East, it appears the upcoming warmth will be most pronounced early in September, with long range outlooks trending to more seasonal temperatures later in September and into early October.

If the warmth across the Southern Appalachians and Southeast/Mid-Atlantic remains prolonged into late September and early October, that could potentially delay the color change, while New England should see more seasonal timing with a more neutral temperature signal for September.

Overall, a lack of drought should favor a good fall foliage season overall in the East in terms of color quality, barring any major/extreme weather events such as a cold snap or high wind event. 

2025 Fall Colors Forecast Map

We provide a Fall Colors Map that updates twice per week starting during the fall season, which predicts the progression of fall colors throughout the United States. The forecast data takes into account the factors discussed above. 

Peak Color Forecast – Western U.S.:

Here is when peak color is forecast in key locations based on the latest Fall Colors Map:

• Colorado Rockies – Mid to late September
  
  
• Wyoming (Tetons) – Late September to early October
  
  
• Montana (Southwest) – Late September to early October
  
  
• Idaho (Central Mountains) – Late September to early October
  
  
• New Mexico (Sangres) – Late September to early October 
  
  
• Southern Utah – Early to mid October
  
  
• Northern Utah (Wasatch) – Early to mid October
  
  
• California (Sierra Nevada & Tahoe) – Early to mid October
  
  
• NW Montana (including Glacier NP) – Early to mid October
  
  
• Pacific Northwest – Early to late October
  
  
• Arizona – Mid October to early November

Peak Color Forecast – Eastern U.S.:

Here is when peak color is forecast in key locations based on the latest Fall Colors Map:

• Minnesota & UP of Michigan – Early to mid October
  
  
• Wisconsin & LP of Michigan – Early to late October
  
  
• Northern New England – Early to mid October
  
  
• Southern New England – Mid to late October
  
  
• Upstate New York (Adirondacks) – Early to mid October
  
  
• Downstate New York (Catskills) – Mid to late October
  
  
• Pennsylvania (Alleghenies & Poconos) – Mid October to early November
  
  
• West Virginia (Alleghenies) – Early to mid October
  
  
• Virginia (Blue Ridge) – Mid October to early November
  
  
• North Carolina/Tennessee (Blue Ridge & Smokies) – Mid to late October
  
  
• North Georgia (Blue Ridge) – Late October to early November

View → Fall Colors Map

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Alan Smith