Hopes of a significant pattern change have been fading across the West for this week, with just some light snow expected in some areas late in the week.

Meanwhile, the pattern is shaping up to be more interesting across the Midwest and the East as two arctic cold fronts will arrive over the next 4 days, resulting in frigid temperatures from the Northern Plains to the Northeast.

Many areas in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and across the higher elevations in the Northeast will see well below zero temperatures at times this week. 

In terms of snowfall over the next 5 days, locally heavy lake effect snow can be expected at times across Michigan, Ontario, and Western New York. Ski resorts in these favored lake effect bands could potentially see 10-20+ inches of snow over the next 5 days.

Elsewhere, lighter snow showers will fall across New England and over the Alleghenies in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, while higher snow totals are expected in Quebec, with many ski areas picking up 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) over the next 5 days. 

Forecast for Monday (Jan 19):

An arctic cold front will move across the Great Lakes, and lake effect snow showers will develop, favoring the UP of Michigan, the western lower peninsula of Michigan, Ontario, and Western New York.

In the West, a backdoor cold front sneaking into the Front Range of Colorado will produce some sneaky snow showers near and east of the Continental Divide in Colorado on Monday morning.

Forecast for Tuesday (Jan 20):

Lake effect snow showers will continue across the Northeast, with locally heavy amounts expected in Western New York. New England will only see light snow showers, while the ski resorts around Quebec City could pick up a few inches.

Further west, a clipper disturbance will slide into the Northern Plains from the northwest with light snow developing. The easternmost mountain ranges in Montana and Northern Wyoming will also pick up some light snow. 

Forecast for Wednesday (Jan 21):

Snow showers will favor the Great Lakes region once again as a disturbance moves through, with areas immediately downwind of the lakes favored for the highest snow totals.

Forecast for Thursday (Jan 22):

Another arctic front will move across the Great Lakes region, and lake effect snow showers will pick back up again, with locally heavy bands projected to favor Western and Upstate New York.

In the West, a trough will begin to develop over the Southwest in response to a strengthening subtropical jet stream. Moisture will be limited across the West, but there may be just enough for some light snow to develop over the Sierra Nevada Range. 

Forecast for Friday (Jan 23):

Lake effect snow showers will continue across the Great Lakes region, with light to moderate snow showers also possible across Northern New England and Quebec.

Across the West, a weak disturbance along with a cold front will slide into the Rockies from the north while a subtropical jet (with limited moisture initially) will continue to strengthen over the Southwest.

Light to moderate snow showers are expected over the Rockies, generally favoring Colorado and Northern New Mexico, with recent model trends toward fewer/lighter snow showers over the Northern Rockies and Northern Utah.

As this storm system progresses eastward and taps into Gulf moisture, snow will develop over the Southern Plains and Ozarks, which will be a precursor for a potentially significant winter storm across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast this weekend. 

Outlook for Sat (Jan 24) to Wed (Jan 28):

For the West, the pattern is sadly trending drier overall for late January as models are backing off on any significant storm potential.

Western Canada and the Northwest U.S. will still be in play for storms thanks to a weaker high pressure ridge, which will allow some moisture to sneak in. Also, New Mexico could potentially pick up some decent snow on Saturday on the backside of a strengthening southern storm.

In the East, all eyes are on a potentially significant winter storm that could impact the Southern and Central Mid-Atlantic on Saturday-Sunday. This storm will feature a combination of a strengthening subtropical jet stream along with arctic air arriving from the north, but of course, the details are uncertain this far out.

Across the Upper Midwest and the Northeast, the pattern looks drier (and continued very cold) compared to further south, but lake effect snow showers will remain a possibility. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (January 21).

Alan Smith