A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern across the West over the next 5 days, resulting in dry conditions. A northerly flow on the east side of the ridge will lead to colder temperatures along the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide, while temperatures will be well above average near the West Coast.

In the East, a deep trough will remain in place with arctic air spilling into the Eastern and Central U.S. Temperatures will be very cold in most areas, but the airmass will be relatively dry with only light snow expected. Localized bands of heavy lake effect snow are possible in some areas, though.

Forecast for Friday (Jan 16):

In the East, light snow showers will linger across the Northeast before a storm reaches the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with locally heavy lake effect snow in Michigan.

In the West, a cold front sliding down the eastern slopes of the Rockies could produce a few light snow showers/flurries in Wyoming and Colorado.

Forecast for Saturday (Jan 17):

A moisture-starved storm will impact the East with snow showers, favoring New England, New York, Quebec, and the western slopes of the Appalachians from Pennsylvania to North Carolina. Lake effect snow showers will also continue over the Upper Midwest, with locally heavy lake effect bands possible over the UP of Michigan.

Forecast for Sunday (Jan 18):

In the West, another cold front sliding down the eastern slopes of the Rockies could produce some light snow showers/flurries east of the Continental Divide. But overall, the West as a whole remains stuck in a dry pattern.

A cold airmass will persist across the Upper Midwest and the East with generally light snow showers expected, although some models are hinting at impactful snow along the I-95 corridor from Richmond to Boston (low confidence).

Could the Deep South see some snow? A few models are projecting light snow to develop as far south as the Gulf Coast, but this is not supported by all models, as other solutions are coming in dry, resulting in low confidence. 

Forecast for Monday (Jan 19):

Lingering moisture and cold air across the Upper Midwest and Northeast will support another uptick in lake effect snow showers, favoring Michigan, Ontario, and Western New York, while Northern New England and Quebec will see lighter snow showers.

In the West, as a cold front slides into Eastern Colorado, a few light snow showers/flurries could develop east of the Continental Divide along the Front Range, but it's a marginal setup.

Forecast for Tuesday (Jan 20):

Lake effect snow showers will continue across the Upper Midwest and Northeast, with the potential for locally heavy snow across Western New York. In the West, flurries couldn't be ruled out over the Northern Rockies east of the Divide, but most models are projecting dry conditions across this region. 

Outlook for Wed (Jan 21) to Sun (Jan 25):

The high pressure ridge across the West will weaken somewhat next week, opening the door for storms across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, along with colder temperatures. Further south, warmer and drier conditions with more limited snow potential are expected from California to Utah and Colorado, as well as the Southwest.

In the East, the jet stream will lift northward a bit some arctic air relief, but temperatures will remain below average from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast. An active storm track is also projected across this region with increased snow potential. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (January 19).

Alan Smith 

Mid-Season Update and Long Range Outlook:

We just published a mid-season winter-to-date report for North America, and previewed the second half of the season, noting the similarities between this winter and the winter of 2017-2018.

View → North America Mid-Winter 2026 Season Update and Long-Range Outlook