Snowfall Forecast – April 21 to 26:

Ski season is quickly winding down across the West, with only a small percentage of ski areas remaining open. However, another stretch of cold and stormy weather is ahead with multiple storm systems expected over the next 5 days.

The Sierra and the Rockies will be the most favored in this pattern, with significant mid to high elevation snowfall expected, while the Cascades will see lighter snowfall. 

Check out our PEAKS Model Total Snowfall Forecast Map through Sunday, April 26th:

Season Recap – Big Picture Pattern:

The winter season as a whole featured a ridge-dominant pattern across the West and a trough-dominant pattern across the East. Generally speaking, we expected this type of pattern in our Winter Forecast Preview, though the warm temperature anomalies associated with the Western ridge were more intense and covered a larger area.

In the map below, brighter colors (green, yellow, red) indicate upper level ridging, and darker colors (blue, purple) indicate upper level troughing. The base period in the map below is November to February, as March reanalysis from NOAA are not available at this time. 

In the West, the average jet stream was along the northern periphery of the ridge across Southern BC and Alberta where more consistent precipitation and snow fell this winter, though occasional dips in the jet stream brought substantial precipitation events to portions of the Western U.S. (warm atmospheric rivers with high snow levels were common).

In the East, frequent troughing in the Northeast resulted in colder temperatures. Snowfall was also abundant across the Great Lakes, New England, New York, and Quebec, while precipitation was below average (and snowfall varied) across the Mid-Atlantic, though cold temperatures led to favorable snowmaking.

Season Recap – Temperatures:

The biggest story of the 2025-2026 ski season is the abnormally warm temperatures experienced in the West. For most regions of the West, this was the warmest winter on record, and this played the biggest role in the poor snowpack, more so than precipitation.

Unseasonably warm temperatures began in November and continued for essentially the entire season, with only temporary cool spells and a lack of any true arctic air blasts into the Western U.S.

Meteorological winter (December to February) was well above average temperature-wise across the West, while the East and Upper Midwest experienced a cold winter with below-average temperatures, along with excellent snow conditions for much of the season.

While the map above only covers the Lower 48, the story was similar across Canada, with above-average temperatures across Western Canada (excluding the far north) and below-average temperatures across Eastern Canada.

March Warmth:

While the core winter season was already very warm across the West, March was in a category of its own as a record-breaking warm airmass took hold across the West during the second half of the month, and this warmth also spread eastward into the Central and Eastern U.S.

This was also the warmest March on record for the Western U.S. and for the entire U.S. as a whole. Many areas in the Western U.S. also recorded their highest temperatures ever in the month of March.

This anomalous warmth led to early snowmelt across the West, with mid to high elevation areas seeing their snow depth peak at least a month earlier than average (early March as opposed to early April).

Relatively cooler temperatures prevailed across the Washington Cascades and Western Canada, and a more active storm track led to better late-season conditions (and a later peak in snowpack) compared to most of the Western U.S.

Western U.S. Snowpack and Precipitation:

April 1st is the standard date used to measure snowpack compared to past seasons in the West. The combination of below-average winter snowfall, above-average winter temperatures, and an early melt-off in March resulted in one of the lowest April 1st snowpacks on record for the West as a whole. 

Interestingly enough, the percentage of average precipitation from October 1st to April 1st was not far from average across most of the West. The Sierra, Northern Rockies, and Washington Cascades saw near to even above average precipitation, while Colorado, New Mexico, and Oregon saw below average precipitation (but not as dire compared to the snowpack percentages).

The precipitation statistics confirm that persistent unseasonably warm temperatures played the biggest role in the poor Western U.S. snowpack.

Here is how temperatures led to well below snowpack (and in some cases record low snowpack) despite precipitation ranging from slightly below average to slightly below average:

• High Snow Levels and Frequent Rain Events – The warm temperatures led to higher snow levels (rain/snow line) on average, not only in the Cascades and Sierra, but even in the Rockies. Many low to mid elevation ski areas, and to some extent even higher elevation areas, saw a higher percentage of rain or mixed precipitation events, which cut into snowfall totals this season.
• Lower than Average Snow to Liquid Ratios – The warm temperatures also resulted in frequent wet, dense snow events, even across the Rockies. Snow-liquid ratios (the amount of snowfall produced by a given amount of precipitaiton) were much lower than usual as a result. Forecasters in the Wasatch and Tetons found that snow-liquid ratios were only around 8:1 to 9:1 on average this winter (more reminiscent of a coastal snowpack), compared to the long term average ratios of 12:1 to 13:1.
• Significant Melting, Especially in March – Frequent warm spells in between storms, led to some mid-season melting depending on elevation, while increased solar radiation and record warmth in March led to more substantial melting. This played a big role in low snowpack numbers on April 1st, and led to some ski resorts closing early. 

Western Canada Snowpack:

The dominant storm track favored BC and Alberta for most of the winter season, and precipitation was above average as a result.

Warm temperatures cut into snowfall totals across Coastal BC and Whistler, and across the Okanagan Region and Southern BC Interior. 

However, central, northern and eastern portions of BC, as well as the Canadian Rockies in Alberta, experienced an exceptional winter with well above average snowfall. Ski resorts that enjoyed a deep winter include Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Panorama, Lake Louise, and Banff Sunshine.

The map below shows April 1st snowpack compared to average across BC. Although this particular map doesn't include Alberta, the percentages along the Eastern BC border are representative of most Alberta resorts this season. 

Alaska Snowpack:

Further north, it was an interesting season across Alaska. Unlike the Western U.S., temperatures were colder than average across Alaska, and the cold was consistent all season long in some areas.

However, snowfall was a mixed bag. South Central Alaska, including Alyeska, has had a below average snow season, whereas Juneau and Eaglecrest experienced a feast or famine season with periods of very heavy snowfall, alternating with warm and rainy periods. Snowpack was right around average in the southeast corner of Alaska on April 1st.

East and Midwest Winter Recap:

Unlike the West, it was an excellent ski season for most of the East and Upper Midwest. The Northern Great Lakes, New York, and New England in particular benefited from the combination of below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall, while Maine was comparatively less snowy (relative to average) than Western New England.

Eastern Canada, including Quebec and Ontario, also enjoyed a big winter overall with below average temperatures and abundant snowfall across most of the region. 

The map below, courtesy of Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) with the Capital Weather Gang, shows snowfall anomalies this season across the U.S. Notice the above average anomalies across ski regions in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. 

The Mt. Mansfield Snow Stake (image courtesy of Matthew Parrilla) is a good proxy for snowpack conditions relative to average across Northern Vermont. For most of the season, snowpack was well above average, though a couple of intense warm spells in March and April have caused the snowpack to dip below average this spring. 

The Mid-Atlantic saw variable snowfall as precipitation was less consistent in this region. In fact, many areas from Central Pennsylvania to Western North Carolina had below-average snowfall. However, consistent mid-winter cold temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic led to favorable snowmaking, and it was an excellent ski season throughout the region as a result. 

Summer Outlook:

Heading into the spring and summer season, we are quickly transitioning from a weak La Niña to a strong El Niño, with El Niño expected to have impacts on weather patterns across North America this summer.

We will be posting a summer seasonal outlook for North America within the next week, so stay tuned!

Winter 2026-2027:

A strong El Niño is expected to persist into the winter of 2026-2027, with fairly high confidence. It's still a bit too early to dive into specifics as we still have a long way to go and other oceanic-atmospheric signals to work out, but stay tuned for our initial winter forecast preview in August 2026.

Thanks so much for reading this season! We hope you all have a wonderful summer and are looking forward to next winter!

Alan Smith

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