The snow forecast has been trending up across the Southern Rockies for several days now as a storm system develops over the Southwest. This storm will bring heavy snow to New Mexico and Central and Southern Colorado on Friday and Saturday. Most ski areas in this region will pick up 8-16 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts of 20+ inches possible in some areas. 

This storm will strengthen as it heads East over the weekend, and a major snow and ice event is expected. The storm has trended north over the past couple of days, and the Northern Mid-Atlantic (Pennsylvania and New York) to Southern New England is favored for the deepest snow totals, with many areas picking up 1 to 2 feet of snow.

Further south, heavy snow will fall initially over West Virginia and Virginia, but a changeover to sleet and freezing rain is expected later in the event. The mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee that were previously expecting heavy snow are now looking at primarily an ice event with significant sleet and freezing rain.

Forecast for Friday (Jan 23):

The storm will begin over the Southern Rockies on Friday with heavy snow favoring Central and Southern Colorado, while Northern Colorado will see light snow. Southern Utah and Arizona will also pick up some decent snowfall, while the storm will just be getting started over New Mexico.

Heading east, snow and ice will also spread into the Central and Southern Plains, which is a precursor for what's ahead across the East this weekend.

Ahead of the main storm, a weaker storm will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast with light snow showers for most areas. However, locally heavy lake effect snow showers can be expected over western Upstate New York. 

Forecast for Saturday (Jan 24):

Heavy snow will fall across New Mexico and Southern and Central Colorado on the western edge of the storm, and it's shaping up to be a solid powder day for many ski resorts in this region.

This storm will also strengthen and move eastward with heavy snow falling across the South Central U.S. Snow will also begin over the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday night, favoring West Virginia and Virginia initially, while an ice storm will also take hold over a large portion of the Mid-South extending into North Carolina. 

Arctic air will also begin to surge into the Central, Northern, and Eastern U.S. A secondary front will also slide down the eastern slopes of the Northern Rockies with light snow showers possible from Alberta to Montana.

Forecast for Sunday (Jan 25):

We will see some lingering snow over the Southern Rockies into Sunday, favoring Southern New Mexico. A trailing weak wave could also bring some light snow showers to Northern Colorado.

The storm will track across the Mid-Atlantic and then begin to move up the East Coast on Sunday, with heavy snow expected from the Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England, including ski resorts as well as major East Coast cities from Philadelphia to Boston. 

A transition from heavy snow to sleet and freezing rain will also occur across the ski regions of West Virginia and Virginia and eastward into the DC metro area.

Forecast for Monday (Jan 26):

The storm will continue to lift northward through New England, with the heaviest snowfall currently expected across Southern New England. However, moderate snow will also reach Upstate New York, Northern New England, and Quebec. 

On the back edge of the system, bitterly cold arctic air will take hold throughout the Central and Eastern U.S. In the wake of the arctic front, light upslope snow showers will develop along the western slopes of the Appalachians with light lake effect snow showers across the Great Lakes. 

In the West, some models are projecting a weaker storm across Central and Northern British Columbia, but confidence is low.

Forecast for Tuesday (Jan 27):

The pattern starts to quiet down a bit after an eventful weekend. Temperatures will remain bitterly cold in the East and Midwest, while a minor disturbance will produce some light snow showers over the Northeast, with lake effect zones favored.

In the West, some models are projecting a weak storm with light snow showers over the Northern Rockies, but other models have backed off on this projection and are indicating dry conditions, so confidence is low right now.

Outlook for Wed (Jan 28) to Sun (Feb 1):

A high pressure ridge-dominant pattern will persist across the West next week, leading to continued dry conditions in most areas along with warmer temperatures. Unfortunately for Western U.S. skiers, this ridge is proving to be extremely stubborn, and it is not expected to break down anytime soon.

One exception to the dry outlook will be portions of British Columbia and Washington (most notably coastal ranges), where there is a chance of storms sneaking in along the northern periphery of the ridge. However, snow levels will likely be high in this pattern with the potential for rain concerns at lower elevation ski resorts.

In the East, an arctic airmass will remain locked in place with very cold temperatures expected. The coldest anomalies are projected across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. 

Snow potential in the East is highly uncertain. It's possible that conditions stay dry with this arctic airmass in place. Some models are hinting at a potential coastal storm at some point, which is worth keeping an eye on, but other models are projecting this potential coastal storm to track well out to sea with no impacts for the Eastern U.S. In other words, confidence is very low.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (January 26).

Alan Smith