In the wake of one of the worst snow seasons on record for the West as a whole in 2025-2026 (but a good snow season for the East), it's time to shift gears and take a look at the upcoming 2026-2027 winter forecast for North America. 

A well-advertised, and potentially historic, super El Niño emerging this season played a big role in putting together this season's outlook. 

We most strongly considered past strong to super El Niño winters with a similar distribution of sea surface temperatures to this one in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, while also examining other oceanic and atmospheric signals, as well as seasonal model data, in producing this outlook. 

As a reminder, winter outlooks contain an inherent degree of uncertainty since so many factors in the atmosphere are not predictable months or even weeks in advance.

When it comes to planning ski trips around storms, 10-day snow and weather forecasts, available with an OpenSnow subscription, are always going to be your best bet over seasonal outlooks.

Now, let's dive into the seasonal forecast...

Winter 2026-2027 Forecast for North America

Snowfall:

Our winter forecast favors above-normal snowfall across the Southwest U.S., including California, Utah, and Southern & Eastern Colorado.

Below-normal snowfall is favored across the northern-tier of the U.S. and much of Canada, as well as western portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Areas in the "equal chances" zones could go either way, with roughly equal odds of above, below, or near average snowfall. 

Temperature:

We are favoring above-average temperatures across a large portion of North America, including roughly the northern 2/3rds of the U.S. along with much of Canada.

Historically, cold air originating in the arctic has a hard time spilling southward into Southern Canada and the U.S. during strong El Niño years. That's not to say it won't happen, it's just expected to happen less frequently than usual.

Across the Southwest U.S. and near the Gulf Coast in the Southeast, there are equal chances of above or below normal temperatures, largely due to an active southern storm track that is favored during strong El Niño winters, which in turn favors more cloud cover than usual. 

While this temperature outlook for the West might seem ominous after last season, it's important to point out that this outlook only shows whether above or below normal temperatures are favored, and does not necessarily mean "well above normal" like what we saw in the West last season.

Last winter was exceptionally warm – the warmest on record for a large portion of the West, and it's unlikely it will be that warm again this winter even if this above-average outlook verifies.

Precipitation:

The precipitation portion of this outlook refers to rain and snow-water-equivalent (how much water is contained in the snow).

We are projecting above-normal precipitation across a large portion of the U.S., including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and East Coast as strong El Niños favor an active southern storm track.

Northern portions of the U.S. and Southern Canada have equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.

Below-normal precipitation is favored across central and northern portions of British Columbia and Alberta.

Winter 2026-2027 Forecast for Europe

El Nino and La Nina have less of a connection with winter weather in Europe, so winter seasonal outlooks are inherently. But ENSO still plays a role in overall global weather patterns, and that is especially true this year given the historic strength of this El Nino episode.

Also, we factor other ocean and atmospheric signals into our historic analogs that play a role in Europe, and globally, to help shape our winter forecasts.  

Snowfall:

Our forecast favors above-normal snowfall across the core of the Alps from France to Western Austria, but with a weaker signal in the Dolomites in Italy. Above-normal snowfall is also favored across the major ski regions in Scandinavia (especially Norway), and there is a slight above-normal signal in Scotland.

Below-normal snowfall is favored across Eastern Europe, while there are also slight below-normal signals over the Pyrenees in Spain/France and in the Apenines in Italy.

Temperature:

Despite the above-normal snowfall signal, we are also projecting above-normal temperatures across the heart of the Alps, which indicates that high snow levels and rain could be an issue at times for lower elevation ski terrain based on historical analogs. 

Outside of the Alps, there is a strong above-normal temperature signal across Eastern Europe, while Western Europe, Scandinavia, and the UK have a neutral signal (equal chances above or below normal temperatures).

Precipitation:

We are projecting above-normal precipitation in the French and Swiss Alps and across much of Northern Europe, while there is a neutral signal (equal chances of above or below normal precipitation) across the Italian and Austrian Alps and across southern portions of Europe near the Mediterranean coast. 

Winter 2026-2027 Forecast for Japan

Similar to North America, there is a stronger connection between El Nino/La Nina and winter weather in Japan, so let's take a look at what this emerging super El Nino could mean.

Snowfall:

We are projecting below-normal snowfall across the major ski regions of Japan, which is consistent of what we typically see during El Nino winters. But keep in mind that Japan's baseline for average snowfall is high, so a below-average signal does not necessarily mean a poor winter for snow. 

Temperature:

We are also projecting above-normal winter temperatures throughout Japan, with the strongest signal on the island of Honshu.

Precipitation:

We are projecting above-average precipitation across southern portions of Honshu, but the major ski regions of Northern Honshu and Hokkaido have equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.

This indicates that the below-average snowfall signal is largely temperature-driven, since strong El Nino winters are not necessarily drier than average in terms of precipitation. 

Next, let's take a look at the regional forecast breakdown for the major ski regions we cover. We'll start with North America regions, before moving onto Europe and Japan. 

California & Nevada

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored
• Seasonality – January to March favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored for northern areas (including Tahoe)

First, we'll admit that the last super El Nino of 2015-2016 was not as wet or as snowy as expected in this area (it was near average around Tahoe, and below in SoCal).

However, that was just one data point, and when considering all of the other historical analog years and seasonal model data, there is still a strong signal for above-average precipitation and above-average snowfall.

While all ski regions in California, including Tahoe, are favored for above-average snowfall based on historical analogs, the signal is strongest in the Central Sierra including Mammoth and China Peak.

SoCal ski resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit, also tend to see disproportionately higher snowfall in El Nino winters (especially strong ones) compared to neutral or La Nina winters. 

One thing to keep in mind is that strong El Nino years tend to be warmer with an active subtropical jet stream. This means that while major snow events can occur, warm atmospheric rivers that bring rain and high snow levels to the mountains can also occur.

In terms of timing, historical analogs favor a somewhat slower start in December, followed by a strong signal for above-normal snow mid to late season from January to March. 

Utah

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored
• Seasonality – January to March favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored for Northern Utah

While Utah is often in the awkward in-between zone when comparing El Nino vs. La Nina snowfall, during strong to super El Nino events, there is a stronger signal that favors above-average snowfall across Northern Utah, and for the state as a whole.

Interestingly, we found that Park City has one of the strongest correlations with above-normal snowfall during the strongest El Nino events. With an active subtropical jet stream favored, this perhaps indicates more frequent instances of favorable winds for the Wasatch Back.

However, the above-average signal is still there for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Snowbasin and the rest of the Wasatch.. Brian Head and the Southern Utah mountain ranges also have a strong above-average signal during these strongest El Nino phases.

Despite the snowy signal, strong El Nino winters tend to be warmer than normal, but again it shouldn't be as warm as last winter. However, this could signal occasional high snow levels with storms.

Salt Lake City is favored for below-average snowfall during strong El Nino phases, compared to the mountains and ski areas rising above the city which are favored for above-average snowfall, which likely is a result of the above-average temperature signal.

In terms of timing, there is not a clear signal in either direction for early season snow (November-December), while there is a better signal for above-normal snow mid to late season from January to March. 

Colorado

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored for Southern & Eastern Colorado
• Seasonality – November-December & March-April favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored for Northern Colorado

There are signals for above-average snowfall during strong/super El Nino events across the southern mountains (San Juans) and eastern mountains (near/east of the Divide). This includes areas such as Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Winter Park, and Loveland.

Northern and Central Colorado ski areas west of the Divide, including Keystone, Breck, Copper, Vail, Aspen, Crested Butte, and Steamboat, do not have a clear signal in either direction. 

The Front Range foothills and cities often tend to see above-average snowfall during strong/super El Nino's as well, as storms taking a southerly track can induce easterly surface winds that load up the eastern side of the Continental Divide. 

In terms of seasonality, snowfall tends to be most heavily weighted toward the early and late seasons, with above-average snowfall favored from October to December and in March-April, with a below-average mid-season snowfall signal in January and February. 

New Mexico

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored 
• Seasonality – November-December & March-April favored
• Temperature – Equal chances above or below normal

Similar to California, 2015-2016 was an exception across this region with disappointing precipitation and snowfall. But that was just one data point, and the rest of the evidence clearly favors a wetter/snowier winter for this region, including Taos.

Historically, New Mexico has had a cooler-than-normal signal during strong El Nino winters, but recent El Nino winters have been warmer which leads to lower confidence, and hence an "equal chances" designation for temperatures.

In terms of seasonality, the signal for above-average snowfall is strongest early in the season in November-December and late in the season in March-April, with a neutral signal for the middle of the season in January-February. 

Arizona

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored 
• Seasonality – February-March favored
• Temperature – Equal chances above or below normal

The mountains of Arizona, including Snowbowl and Sunrise Park, also have a clear above-average snowfall signal during strong El Nino phases. In terms of seasonality, the early season (Nov-Jan) has a neutral to slight above average signal, while there is a stronger above-average signal in February-March based on historical analogs.

Washington

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored
• Seasonality – January has an above-average snowfall signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Equal chances above or below

While there is not a dry signal for Washington during strong El Nino winters (equal chances above or below normal precipitation), snowfall tends to be lower than average due to warm temperatures associated with El Nino.

For the top analog years examined, snowfall was typically slightly to modestly below average with an occasional above-average year. And during patterns when temperatures are cold enough, significant snow cycles certainly happen.

In terms of seasonality, historical analogs indicate a dry signal early and late in the season (fall, spring), with a wetter mid-winter signal from December to February, and a snowy signal during January at the climatological coldest time of year.

Oregon

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored for Southern Oregon (south of Bachelor)
• Seasonality – January has an above-average snowfall signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Above-normal favored for Western & Southern Oregon

Oregon tends to fare a bit better than Washington, due in part to a more active southern storm track on average, but warm temperatures associated with El Nino can still lead to more snow level issues compared to a typical winter.

Southern Oregon (Willamette Pass, Mt. Ashland, Mt. Bailey) has an above-average snowfall signal, more in line with what we expect in California, while Bachelor, Hood, and the Wallowas in Northeast Oregon have a neutral signal.

Mt. Bachelor exhibits more boom or bust potential when looking at the top analog years, as some strong El Nino winters were well above average while others were well below average.

In terms of seasonality, trends are similar to Washington with a drier signal early and late in the season, and a wetter signal during the core of the season from December to March. The only notably snowy signal for the state as a whole is in January, while February-March have a snowy signal just for Southern Oregon with a neutral signal elsewhere.

Idaho

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored SW Idaho, Below-normal favored Panhandle
• Seasonality – January and March favored (Southern Idaho)
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

Southern Idaho tends to fare better than Northern Idaho during strong El Nino winters, but much of the state is in the "in-between" equal chances zone, where there is more variability among the historical analogs examined.

Bogus Basin and Sun Valley can do better in strong El Nino winters as storms can swing up from California via favorable southerly winds, but this doesn't always happen as Sun Valley has had below-average El Nino winters in addition to above-average ones.

Further north, the Panhandle ski resorts such as Schweitzer and Silver Mountain tend to not do as well during strong El Nino years, though there have been exceptions. Brundage and Tamarack are right in between with no clear signal in either direction. 

Warm temperatures can also be a factor in strong El Nino winters, leading to higher snow levels and rain with some storms.

In terms of seasonality, Southern Idaho has a neutral early season signal, and a stronger signal for above-average snowfall in January and March.

Northern Idaho maintains a below-average signal in each month during the season based on historical analogs, but that's not to say there couldn't be a big month or two this season.

Wyoming

• Snowfall – Equal chances above or below
• Seasonality – January and March favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

Wyoming does not show much of a snowfall signal in either direction during strong El Nino years. In fact, the Tetons (Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee) were pretty close to average, either slightly above or slightly below, during the top analog years. 

In terms of seasonality, there is a drier signal early in the season from November-December and again in February, with a stronger above-average snowfall signal in January and March based on historical analogs.

Smaller ski areas east of the Continental Divide in Wyoming have a seasonality more similar to Colorado, with a stronger above-average snowfall signal in March and April and a drier mid-season signal. 

Montana

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored Northern Montana
• Seasonality – March favored (Southern Montana)
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

Strong El Nino winters tend to be below-average across Central and Northern Montana (Lost Trail to Whitefish), with no clear signal across Southern Montana (Big Sky, Bridger Bowl, Red Lodge).

In fact, the top analog years were pretty close to average around Big Sky and Southwest Montana, either slightly above or slightly below.

In terms of seasonality across Southern Montana, there is a neutral signal for most of the season until March, when there is an above-average signal.

Northern Montana maintains a below-average signal in each month during the season based on historical analogs, but that's not to say there couldn't be a big month or two this season.

British Columbia

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored 
• Seasonality – January has an above-average snow signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Below-normal favored from roughly Revelstoke & Kicking Horse northward

Strong El Nino's tend to favor below-average snowfall across most of this region, due to both warm temperatures and a more southerly storm track on average compared to a typical winter.

But occasionally there are years that buck the trend and bring near to above average snowfall to some parts of this region, such as 2015-2016.

Also, it's interesting to note that Whistler's mid-mountain plot has close to a neutral signal during strong El Nino winters, while the base area tends to see more rain events than usual due to the warm signal that is favored during El Nino.

Occasionally, the Okanagan resorts (Big White, Sun Peaks, Silver Star.) can do ok relative to average as well as storms can swing up from the south during El Nino winters and bypass the typical rain shadow of the Coast Range. 

Powder Highway resorts such as Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Whitewater, Red Mountain, and Fernie tend to be below-average for snowfall during El Nino winters.

Revelstoke and Kicking Horse tend to see drier conditions, hence the below-average snowfall signal, while Whitewater, Red, and Fernie are not necessarily drier, but are more vulnerable to warm temperatures and higher snow levels that can occur during El Nino winters. 

In terms of seasonality, the middle of the season tends to be best. Looking at historical analogs, we see a below-average snow signal in November and March, a neutral signal in December and February, and above-average signal in January. 

Alberta/Canadian Rockies

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored 
• Seasonality – March has a slight above-average snow signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

This is one of the few regions of the West that had a big winter in 2025-2026.

The outlook for 2026-2027 is not as favorable for the Canadian Rockies as strong El Nino years tend to favor below-average snowfall, though you never know as the two most recent historical analogs ended up closer to average.

One advantage of Canadian Rockies resorts such as Banff Sunshine, Lake Louise and Marmot Basin, relative to more coastal and transitional snow climates further west, is their higher elevation and access to colder air which can make them more resilient to rain concerns during warmer-than-average winters.

In terms of seasonality, there is a neutral to below-average signal each month from November to February, but a slight above-average signal in March based on historical analogs. However, there is also a notable dry signal in April. 

Alaska

• Snowfall – Equal chances above or below in most areas
• Seasonality – November-December favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Above-normal favored coastal ranges

Alaska has mixed signals historically during strong El Nino winters. Alyeska tends to have above-average snowfall at mid to upper mountain during strong El Ninos, but for the Chugach and coastal ranges of South Central Alaska as a whole, there is no clear signal in either direction.

Also, Southeast Alaska including Eaglecrest tends to have below-average snowfall during strong El Nino seasons.

There is also a strong signal for above-average temperatures across South Central and Southeast Alaska during strong El Nino winters, which may explain some of the mixed snowfall signals as lower elevations tend to be more prone to warm-ups, rain, and high snow levels compared to a typical winter.

In terms of precipitation (rain and liquid-equivalent snow), coastal regions of Alaska tend to be wetter than average while there is no clear signal in either direction for interior areas.

In terms of seasonality, the strongest signal for above-average snowfall for both South Central and Southeast Alaska as a whole is early in the season from November to December.

Mid to late season from January to April has more of a mixed signal for the Chugach Range, Alyeska, and South Central Alaska, as snowfall seems to be more elevation-dependent (higher elevations where it's colder are more favored).

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored 
• Seasonality – Snowier signals in January and March
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Equal chances above or below

Strong El Nino winters correlate well to above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall across this region, while precipitation can go either way relative to average.

Arctic air often remains bottled up further north during strong El Nino winters, although that's not to say that this region couldn't see occasional cold blasts.

In terms of seasonality, there are slightly above-average snowfall signals based on historical analogs in both January and March, which indicates that even past below-average seasons still had some good stretches.

New England

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored 
• Seasonality – January has a slightly more favorable signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Above-normal favored for Southern New England

New England winters exhibit a bit of variability in the historical analog years examined, but overall, the trends lean toward below-normal snowfall during strong El Nino winters, and this includes areas such as Killington, Stowe, Jay Peak, Sugarloaf, and Bretton Woods.

There is also a clear signal toward above-normal temperatures during strong El Nino winters, most notably during the heart of the season from December to March, which is likely the main contributor toward the below-average snowfall signal.

Southern New England and coastal areas tend to be wetter than normal during strong El Nino winters, whereas Northern New England does not have a clear signal in either direction for precipitation.

In terms of seasonality, confidence in the timing of snowier vs. less snowy months is quite low for this region. If we look closely at historical analogs, November, January, and April have a neutral to slightly above-normal signal for snowfall, whereas December, February, and March have stronger below-average signals. 

New York State

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored 
• Seasonality – No clear signals for snowier periods
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Equal chances above or below

Strong El Nino winters tend to favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall for all ski regions in New York, while interestingly enough, New York City has more of a neutral signal with equal chances of above or below normal snowfall.

Precipitation does not have a strong signal in either direction, which indicates that warm temperatures (and a higher frequency of rain or mixed precipitation events) associated with El Nino are the biggest driver of the below-average snowfall signal. 

In terms of seasonality, the below-average snowfall signal is pretty strong during the core of the season from December to March. There is actually an above-average snowfall signal across the Catskills and Adirondacks, including Whiteface, during the month of April, based on historical analogs. But of course the season is winding down by then.

So why does New York City have a neutral snowfall signal when the rest of the state has a below-average signal?

During strong El Nino winters, coastal storms, or Nor'easters, are more likely to track up the Atlantic coast, and if they happen to line up with cold air, they can occasionally produce big storms in NYC.

However, strong El Nino years tend to be very boom or bust in the city with some historical analog years producing very little snow, while others featured a single big storm that alone boosted the city to above-aveage snowfall.

Quebec

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored 
• Seasonality – January and February have a snowier signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Equal chances above or below

Similar to New England, New York, and the Upper Midwest, strong El Nino winters favor below-normal snowfall and above-normal temperatures across Quebec and Eastern Canada, including Tremblant, while precipitation does not have a clear signal in either direction.

In terms of seasonality, the below-average snowfall signals are strongest early and late in the season. However, there is a neutral to above-average snowfall signal during the middle of the season in January and February, when temperatures are coldest climatologically-speaking.

Mid-Atlantic

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored PA, WV, MD, Equal chances VA & NC
• Seasonality – January and February have a snowier signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored
• Precipitation – Above-normal favored east side of Appalachians

We see some interesting signals emerge across the Mid-Atlantic during strong El Nino years, but also quite a bit of boom or bust potential.

Strong El Nino winters tend to favor above-normal temperatures region-wide, but there is also a strong wet signal (above-average precipitation) across North Carolina, Virginia, New Jersey, and eastern portions of Maryland and Pennsylvania.

During past strong El Nino years when colder patterns lined up with an active East Coast storm track, this led to bigger snow events and above-average winters across the higher terrain of North Carolina and Virginia (Beech Mtn, Sugar Mtn, Wintergreen) as well as in Eastern Pennsylvania, including ski areas such as Camelback and Blue Mountain.

But in other winters, storms did not line up with colder periods and snowfall was below average in these southern and eastern regions.

Western and northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic in WV, MD, and PA, such as Snowshoe, Canaan Valley, Wisp, Seven Springs, and Elk Mountain tend to be drier than eastern and southern areas, with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.

This neutral precipitation signal for these western and northern Mid-Atlantic areas, combined with the warmer signal, tends to favor below average snowfall during strong El Nino winters.

In terms of seasonality, there is a signal toward above-normal snowfall (especially in the Southern Appalachians, from NC to VA & WV) in January and February, while the early and late season has a neutral to below average signal. 

Mid-Atlantic coastal cities such as DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia also exhibit a lot of boom or bust snowfall potential in strong El Nino winters, similar to NYC.

Some historical analog years examined featured very little snow in these cities, while others featured single large snowstorms that pushed season snowfall totals above-average. In general, the East Coast cities experience fewer snow events in strong El Nino winters compared to a typical winter, but occasionally they can get a huge storm.

French Alps:

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored
• Seasonality – January to April favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

The French Alps have an above-average snowfall signal from Avoriaz to Chamonix to Val Thorens, but there is also an above-average temperature signal which indicates that high snow levels and rain could potentially be an issue at times for lower elevation ski areas.

In terms of seasonality, there is a below-average early season snowfall signal in November-December, followed by an above-average mid to late season snow signal from January to April.

Also, the above-normal temperature signal is strongest from November to February, while there is a below-normal temperature signal in March and April.

Switzerland:

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored
• Seasonality – January and March-April favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

The Swiss Alps also have an above-average snowfall signal, which includes Verbier, Zermatt, Grindelwald, and St. Moritz. 

Similar to France, the Swiss Alps also have an above-average temperature signal, which indicates that high snow levels and rain could potentially be an issue at times for lower elevation ski areas.

In terms of seasonality, there is a below-average early season snowfall signal in November-December and again in February, while there is an above-average snowfall signal in January and in March-April.

The above-normal temperature signal is strongest in November-December and February, with more of a neutral signal in January. There is a below-normal temperature signal late in the season in March-April.

Austria

• Snowfall – Above-normal (slightly) favored
• Seasonality – March-April most favored
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

The Austrian Alps have a slight above-average snowfall signal overall, and relatively speaking, the signal is a bit stronger further west across Tyrol, including St. Anton, Ischgl, Solden, and Innsbruck.

The Austrian Alps also have an above-average temperature signal, which indicates that high snow levels and rain could potentially be an issue at times for lower elevation ski areas.

In terms of seasonality, there is a below-average snowfall signal in November, followed by mixed but slightly above-average signals from December to February, and a stronger above-average signal late in the season in March-April.

The above-normal temperature signal is strongest in December and February, with more of a neutral to slight above average signal in January. There is a slight below-normal temperature signal in March-April, mainly in Tyrol.

Italy

• Snowfall – Equal chances above or below in the Alps
• Seasonality – March-April favored
• Temperature – Above-normal Western Italian Alps & Apennines

The Italian Alps as a whole do not have a clear signal in either direction for snowfall, with equal chances of above or below-average snow. This includes Dolomites resorts such as Cortina and Val Gardena. 

However, there is a bit of an above-average signal in the Western Italian Alps, including Courmayeur and Cervinia. 

The Northern Apennines have a slightly below average snowfall signal, while the Central Apennines have more of a neutral signal.

There is an above-normal temperature signal for the Western Italian Alps, including Courmayeur, and the Apennines, while there is more of a neutral signal in the Dolomites.

In terms of seasonality, there is a below-average snowfall signal during the first half of the season from November to January, and an above-average snowfall signal during the second half of the season from February to April. 

The above-normal temperature signal is strongest in December and February, with more of a neutral to slight above average signal in January. There is a below-normal temperature signal across the Italian Alps in March and April.

Pyrenees (Spain/France/Andorra)

• Snowfall – Below-normal (slightly) favored
• Seasonality – March has an above-normal snow signal
• Temperature – Above-normal (slightly) favored

The Pyrenees have a slight below-normal snowfall signal overall. This below-normal signal is strongest for the Eastern Pyrenees including Grandvalira, La Molina, and Font-Romeu. Western Pyrenees areas such as Formigal and Grand Tourmalet have more of a neutral signal.

The Pyrenees also have a slight above-normal temperature signal, though the signal is weaker here compared to the Alps.

In terms of seasonality, there is a neutral to below normal snowfall signal from November to February, with the strongest below-normal signal in January. However, the late season tends to be better with an above-average snowfall signal in March and a neutral signal in April.

There is a strong above-normal temperature signal in November-December, followed by a slight above-normal temperature signal in January-February, and a below-normal temperature signal in March-April.

Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden, Finland)

• Snowfall – Above-normal favored Norway & Finland, equal chances above or below Sweden
• Seasonality – Varies by region
• Temperature – Equal chances above or below

Norway has a signal for above-average snowfall for the season as a whole, most notably in western areas including Hemesdal and Geilo, while eastern/interior areas such as Trysil have more of a neutral signal.

In terms of seasonality, December has a strong signal throughout the major ski regions of Southern Norway.

However, in January-February, Western Norway (Hemesdal, Geilo) has an above-normal snow signal and Eastern Norway (Trysil) has a below-normal snow signal. The signal reverses in March-April when Eastern Norway is Sweden has a neutral snowfall signal for the season as a whole, with equal chances of above or below normal snow, and this includes Are and Salan.

In terms of seasonality, he early to mid season from November to February has a neutral to below normal snowfall signal in Sweden, while the late season in March-April has an above-normal snowfall signal.

Northern Finland, where most of the country's ski resorts are located, is slightly favored for above-normal snowfall for the season as a whole, and this includes Levi and Ruka.

In terms of seasonality, month-to-month variability is high across Northern Finland. There are above-normal snowfall signals in November and February, with more neutral signals (ranging from slightly above to slightly below) in December-January and March-April.

Japan – Hokkaido

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored
• Seasonality – January-February more favored (neutral snowfall signal)
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

Strong El Nino winters favor below-normal snowfall across Hokkaido, including Niseko and Rusutsu. Above-normal temperatures are also favored here.

In terms of seasonality, the strongest below-average snow signals are in December and March-April, while the middle of the season (when climatologically speaking, snowfall his heaviest) in January and February have more of a neutral signal, meaning that mid-season powder cycles are still likely.

The above-normal temperature signals are also strongest early and late in the season (December and April) with more of a neutral signal during the peak season in January-February.

Japan – Honshu

• Snowfall – Below-normal favored
• Seasonality – January has an above-normal snow signal
• Temperature – Above-normal favored

Strong El Nino winters favor below-normal snowfall across the Japanese Alps in Honshu, including the Hakuba resorts. Above-normal temperatures are also favored here.

In terms of seasonality, the good news is that there is an above-normal snow signal in January which is the climatological snowiest time of year anyways, while December and February have a below-normal temperatures signal.

Keep in mind that despite these signals based on historical analogs, there is still going to be year to year variable. 

Seasonal forecasts as a whole are useful and interesting for the big picture, but when it comes to planning powder days and ski trips around storms, remember that 10-day forecasts (available with an OpenSnow subscription) are always the way to, no matter if it's an above or below average winter.

Next, let's take a look at the latest status of El Nino, along with other oceanic and atmospheric signals we considered in making our winter season forecast. 

Super El Niño Update

Earlier this summer, we wrote an article discussing the upcoming Super El Nino pattern, and how it could potentially become the strongest El Niño on record.

View → Could Upcoming Super El Niño Be Strongest Ever?

Confidence remains high that a very strong, or "super", El Nino will prevail through the winter of 2026-2027, and if anything, confidence has only grown in this being among the strongest on record since our last update earlier this summer.

As of August 10, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean) are 1.8ºC above average and anomalies in the Nino 1+2 region (Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean) are 3.3ºC above average.

In the image below, the red colors indicate above-average sea surface temperature anomalies. Along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, the warm signature is very evident, especially just off the coast of South America.

Overall El Nino strength designations are based on Nino 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies.

Here is how El Nino strength is determined:

El Niño Strength (Based on Niño 3.4 SST Anomaly):

• Neutral: Anomaly of < 0.5ºC
• Weak El Niño: Anomaly of 0.5º to 1.0ºC
• Moderate El Niño: Anomaly of 1.0 to 1.5ºC
• Strong El Niño: Anomaly of 1.5 to 2.0ºC
• Super El Niño: Anomaly > 2.0ºC

NOAA's latest monthly projection has nearly a 100% chance of El Niño conditions lasting through the winter season.

In the image below, the x-axis shows the probability of El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral conditions for 3-month overlapping periods, with JFM corresponding to January-February-March, for example. 

NOAA has steadily increased its projected strength in its probabilistic forecasts in recent months. And as of July, they are now projecting a 75-80% chance of a "very strong" or "super" El Niño between October and January. 

The European (ECMWF) Seasonal Model has been locked in on this El Niño outlook from the get-go, as it was among the first to really start picking up on this emerging El Niño signal early last winter, which is an impressive lead time. 

Also, this model has done a good job of projecting the strength of the El Niño so far this summer.

The individual members of the August 2026 European Seasonal Model (multiple simulations with slightly different initial conditions) project Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies to peak between 3.5º and 4.5ºC by late fall 2026, which is even higher than we shared our last El Niño update article in June. 

If this forecast verifies, it would mean a record-setting El Nino event.

One theme you may notice here is that the highest SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region usually occur in late fall to early winter, although the atmospheric response tends to linger even beyond when these peaks occur.

East-and-Basin-Wide Focused El Nino

The strongest super El Nino events in the past typically focus the warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern-most portions of the Equatorial Pacific, or in both the east and central regions. 

We focused on sea surface temperature anomalies exhibiting such patterns in this outlook, including 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024. 

Other winters featured moderate to borderline strong El Ninos, but with more of a central-based or "Modoki" signature in which the highest anomalies were focused in the Central Pacific with weaker warm anomalies in the Eastern Pacific.

These winters influence North America weather patterns differently and thus are weaker signals for a winter like this one. These weaker El Nino analogs include seasons such as 1994-95, 2002-03, and 2009-10. 

While this potentially historic El Nino episode and the associated sea surface temperature distributions was the greatest factor in producing our winter outlook, we factored in other oceanic and atmospheric signals as well.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO):

One signal that influences global weather patterns is the QBO, which is a measure of upper atmospheric wind patterns near the equator. The QBO oscillates between easterly (negative) and westerly (positive) phases roughly every 10-15 months, with some phases being stronger than others.

Currently, we are transitioning into a westerly (positive) QBO phase this summer that is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

In the chart below, wind anomalies at 30 hPA (millibar) near Singapore are used to measure QBO, with the transition to yellow colors indicating the recent shift to a westerly QBO phase.

The QBO influence is not as strong during stronger El Nino (or La Nina) winters, and tends to have a greater influence during neutral or weak to moderate ENSO phases. However, it is still a factor, even if it ends up being overshadowed by this year's super El Nino. 

All other factors equal, westerly QBO winters tend to favor more frequent trough-dominant patterns in the West and more frequent high pressure ridging in the East. 

The sample size for strong/super El Ninos and westerly QBO years is small. Both 1982-83 and 2015-16 fit the bill, but each of these two winters were quite a bit different from one another. 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation:

The PDO is a long-term climate index based on sea surface temperature distributions in the North Pacific Ocean, and it tends to go through 20-30 year cycles, although short-term deviations within these long-term trends can also occur.

We are currently in a cool, or negative, phase of the PDO, which means that temperatures are cooler in the eastern North Pacific compared to the central North Pacific.

The PDO tends to reinforce El Nino or La Nina when they are "in phase" with one another. In other words, a warm phase of the PDO can reinforce the patterns associated with El Nino (warm phase of ENSO) signal, while a cool PDO can reinforce the patterns associated with La Nina.

Currently the PDO is out of phase with with ongoing El Nino, which has caused some speculation how this may influence the upcoming El Nino.

However, there are a couple of things to note:

1) Long-range modeling indicates a weakening of the cool PDO signature heading into the fall and winter season, with a roughly neutral signal or equal chances of a cool or warm PDO prevailing.

2) The cool phase of the PDO over the past 10-15 years has been fundamentally different compared to prior decades, due in a large part to rising global ocean temperatures as a whole. 

The cool PDO signal arises in relative terms in which sea surface temperatures in the Eastern North Pacific are cooler than in the Central North Pacific.

Historically, a cool PDO by itself has favored above-average winter precipitation in the Northwest and Central Rockies and cooler temperatures across the Northwest and Midwest.

But in absolute terms, temperatures in the Eastern North Pacific in recent years have been near normal to at times above normal, whereas sea surface temperatures further west have been well above normal.

Therefore, the cool PDO signal currently ongoing has not exhibited the typical patterns that a more traditional cool PDO (with a stronger below-average sea surface temperature signal in the Eastern Pacific) has exhibited in the past. 

As a result, confidence in the PDO influence for this upcoming winter is low.

Atlantic Ocean Temperatures

The distribution of temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean also play a role as a piece of the overall big picture.

For the upcoming season, there are expected to be pockets of below-average sea surface temperature anomalies to the south of Greenland, with near to above-average anomalies across much of the central and southern Atlantic.

For the Atlantic Basin as a whole, there are not any major sea surface temperature anomalies such as what we saw in the last strong El Nino of 2023-24 when sea surface temperatures were well above average throughout the Atlantic Basin.

Historically, the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), which has a similar decadal time frame as the PDO, has been a signal evaluated regarding Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

More recently, the relative AMO has been adopted which compared Atlantic Ocean temperatures to the mean global ocean temperature average.

By using this metric, the relative AMO is expected to be in its cooler negative phase this season, which does have a signal toward a wetter (and also cooler) Southwest, and is consistent with the strong El Nino signals in that regard. 

Historical Analogs

Putting it all together, we came up with 4 top analog seasons that we weighted most heavily, and an additional 5 weaker analogs that we weighted slightly. 

Here are the top 4 analogs in chronological order...

• 1982-83
• 1997-98
• 2015-16
• 2023-24

And here are the 5 weaker analogs in chronological order...

• 1972-73
• 1986-87
• 1991-92
• 1994-95
• 2009-10

Typical El Nino Patterns Based on Weighted Analogs:

Using our weighted analog approach for the the upper-atmospheric weather pattern (high pressure ridges and low pressure troughs), we find a trough-dominant signal off of the West Coast and across the Southern U.S., with the black arrows indicating the storm tracks that tend to dominate during strong El Nino winters.

Final Thoughts

When it comes to skiing, it’s all about timing.

Booking a trip 7-10 days in advance and for a general area that looks stormy will increase your chances of scoring the best conditions.

If you're ready to level up your weather app for the upcoming winter season, consider upgrading to OpenSnow Base or Premium. Whether you’re chasing powder, searching for sunny days, or something in between, our 10-day snow forecasts, expert "Daily Snow" forecasters, and high-resolution weather maps have you covered.

But don't just take my word for it ... "Any weather app can give a mediocre forecast for a mountain town, but only OpenSnow provides a good idea of actual mountain conditions. It's a small price to pay for the best weather forecasts." – Real App Review

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Alan Smith