Forecast for Friday 3rd to Sunday 5th October

Friday brings a nice, sunny morning, before clouds build ahead of a Tasman Low that spreads rain over Mt Ruapehu by afternoon and the South Island at night, with snow to mid-levels in the Southern Lakes. This precipitation persists through Saturday as the low moves across the country, but a colder southerly pushes up the South Island in the evening, dropping snow to base levels.

On Sunday, snow showers clear the Southern Lakes in the afternoon and then Canterbury in the evening as the southerly winds ease. Storm totals will sit between 5 and 20 cms across ski fields, making for a great closing day at Cardrona. However, strong southerlies will likely affect lift operations on Mt Hutt.

Forecast Monday 6th & Tuesday 7th October

Monday sees the South Island start fine but quickly deteriorate as a front brings severe-gale northwest winds and heavy rain from afternoon. A colder westerly change Monday night turns the rain to lighter snow showers over the Southern Lakes, while the rain clears Mt Hutt.

On Tuesday, the snow showers clear the Southern Lakes in the afternoon after an early, cold southwest change, leaving a small top-up of several centimetres. Strong westerly winds will affect Mt Hutt first thing, but the colder, lighter southwest change will arrive later in the morning, bringing a period of snow showers there into the afternoon, equating to a dusting of a few centimetres.

Meanwhile, Mt Ruapehu will see a few light showers on Monday, falling as snow about the upper mountain, before the front brings heavy rain and strong northwest winds during pre-opening hours on Tuesday. Showers of low-level rain and upper snow linger through the day, accompanied by strong westerly winds.

Strong, stormy westerlies with frequent gales will persist through next week, disrupting lift operations at The Remarkables and Mt Hutt during their final days of the season. Frontal systems are expected to cross the country from late Thursday through Friday (9/10 October) and again next weekend (11/12 October), each bringing an initial period of rain and then a small shot of snow and cooler temperatures. 

Thanks for reading. This is the final forecast of the season. It's been a great season and I'm looking forward to the next one!

Mike